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BIO:
Rich Green is the editor
of http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com
, a free sports handicapping and information service.
He has been a top ranked handicapper for over 35 years. He
specializes in Football, Basketball and Baseball, all the major sports,
and has won numerous contests in each.
Sunday January 22
5***** Gold Key
Pick, Baltimore +7.5 over NEW ENGLAND (NFL Playoffs, 3
et) (Weather)
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Gold Key Picks in Football, Basketball and
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today's Gold Key Football Pick released here for free.
The Ravens won the AFC North Division for their fourth-year Head
Coach John Harbaugh, then defeated the Texans last week to reach the
AFC Championship Game here as the second seed. They stand at 13-4
Straight Up, and 8-8-1 Against The Spread on the season. While
this
will be a tough environment to succeed as the Road team, the Ravens can
keep this one closer than expected this afternoon. Positive
trends
include 20-12 ATS versus the AFC East, 5-1 ATS versus winning teams,
and 40-29 ATS under Coach Harbaugh. These two teams were our
pre-season wagers on Super Bowl Futures at 6-1 and 14-1, so we go into
the Big Dance with the AFC Champion.
The AFC East Champion Patriots under their long-tenured Head Coach Bill
Belichick earned the top seed in the AFC and walloped the Broncos last
week to get here. They hold a record of 14-3 SU, and 10-6-1 ATS
on the
year, are well-Coached, have a great Quarterback and Receivers, and
must be respected. Negative trends for the Pats today include 0-2
SU
and ATS in the Playoffs, and 1-2 ATS as Home Favorites in this point
range.
The line opened at Patriots -7.5. We'll take those points and the
Road Ravens to cover for us here today in a Gold Key Pick.
For
those who don't know it, our Members rarely wager on the FREE
release, and instead invest their money wisely on the Gold Key
Picks. Make
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Football, Basketball and Baseball wagering information. Visit us
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Gold Key Picks on site as well.
--Rich Green
Editor@FreeSportsLetter.com
http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com
2011 NFL AND NCAA Football Wagering Tips
Emotion - The most important betting edge to know about in
football wagering isn't statistics or numbers. The most important
edge is emotion. Find the team that desires to win more than
their opponent and they'll cover a high percentage of those
events. This is true in all sports. But it is even more
significant in a physical game like NCAA and NFL Football.
Certain Coaches are much better than others in getting their teams
ready for games by providing the impetus for emotion. Such
Coaches as Frank Beamer, Paul Johnson, Tom O'Brien, and Bill Belichick
among others have all shown their worth in
this area over the years.
Sandwich Games - Be careful of 'sandwich' games. That is the
game for a team that's in between two other more important games.
The NFL split into different Divisions recently, with fewer teams in
each Division. Since then we have both the AFC and NFC broken
down into four Divisions consisting of four teams each. They are
called the East, North, South and West. So now Division games are
of even greater significance than in the past with fewer teams in each
Division. When it comes to determining the Playoff picture, these
games are the most important to each competing team.
If Tennessee for example, early in the
season, plays Indianapolis this week and Jacksonville in two weeks, you
know they're going to be focused on those two inter-Divisional
games. But if the in-between game is against say San Francisco, a
lesser out of Conference team, be careful! Tennessee will have
most likely played a tough game the week before, and have an important
tough game the following week. Starters may be pulled early
against San Francisco, and those hurting from the previous game might
not even play in this one.
Too many bettors jump on a team that has
been covering on the 'sandwich' game, laying way too much 'wood'.
The team usually wins, but fails to cover. Then the bettor jumps
off of Tennessee the following week against Jacksonville because the
bettor got burnt the week before in the sandwich game!
Line Movement - Sometimes
line movement means nothing, and sometimes it means everything.
When I wager (my favorite recreation), I want the line to be bet dead
or move 1/2 to one point with me. Not a lot of movement, but
slightly in agreement with me. When a line moves more than one
point, especially in the NFL, it can be a dangerous play. This
can denote injuries or other late information such as weather,
etc. But be careful, NFL teams are notorious for giving out
misleading disinformation more so than any other sport.
Quite often with big line movement in
the NFL, the final score falls in between the original line and the
final line. This opens the door for 'middlers', those who bet
early one way and late the other way on the same game. I know
several gamblers who make their living on this, and i have been
successful myself at it. They give up the 10% 'juice' in hopes of
winning both ways. The most they can lose is 5% of their total
bet. They clean up if one play pushes or wins and the other play
wins.
NCAA football can be different
though. With so many lined college games nowadays, big line
movement can be bet on. For two years in a row in the early
1990's, the Ivy League football team that got the most line movement
during the week won every single game those years. Every
week! For games like these with fewer wagers on them, the line
can easily move 3 to 5 points. Sometimes it can move even
more. Beware of betting against this line movement, it generally
is right. In the Colleges, stay away from wagering against consistent
and massive line movement in one direction.
Here's wishing all Football bettors a
great 2011
Football Wagering Season! Make sure
to stop by the http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com
site for tons of FREE Wagering Information, Contests, Lines, Scores,
and more
importantly, FREE Winners!
--Rich Green
Editor@FreeSportsLetter.com
http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com
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